Новинка
5 окт. 2025 г.
Market Reports
If you skim the headlines, September feels like more of the same: Dubai kept sprinting. But look a touch closer and the picture is slightly messier—in a healthy, real-market way. Off-plan stayed dominant, luxury made new headlines, rents inched up again, and mortgages cooled (not dramatically, but enough to notice). I walked through the data twice—first for the story, then for the shape of it—and, perhaps predictably, a few details refused to sit neatly in the box. That’s okay. Real markets breathe.
Below I’ll move from crisp KPIs into segments, price behavior, and the “why” beneath the numbers. I’ll also drop in comparison tables, tiny asides where it helps, and quick interlinks to helpful guides on Totality Estates if you want to act on any of this today.
Key Statistics (September 2025)
Multiple independent roundups in early October confirm the same core figures—and the pattern: value growth outpacing volume growth, which usually hints at ticket-size mix and a luxury tilt.
A quick note: higher value growth than volume growth tends to mean either pricier assets are moving, or there’s a compositional shift toward premium areas and off-plan launches with larger checks.
Fast facts table (YoY)
Metric | Sep 2025 | YoY change |
|---|---|---|
Transactions | 20,127 | +11.3% |
Sales Value | AED 54.3B | +21.2% |
Avg Price / sq ft | AED 1,689 | +9.7% |
Mortgage Deals | 3,787 | –9.2% |
Mortgage Value | AED 12.1B | –24.2% |
Source cross-checks align on totals and directionally on mortgages.
Data by DXBInteract.com
Off-Plan vs. Resale (Who’s actually buying?)
This split lines up closely with the public recaps and brokerage digests (and reflects what we’re seeing day-to-day on the ground: investors prefer flexible payment plans, and developers are meeting them there).
Off-plan vs. resale — quick comparison
Segment | Volume | Share of deals | Avg AED/sq ft | Sales Value | Share of value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Off-plan | 14,932 | 74.2% | 1,761 | 36.6B | 67.5% |
Resale | 5,195 | 25.8% | 1,471 | 17.6B | 32.5% |
Interpretation, in plain words: Off-plan isn’t just “winning”; it’s shaping the entire month’s profile—both the affordable tail (sub-AED 2M ticket sizes) and the luxe edge (branded residences pulling premiums). That duality is very Dubai.
Segment Performance (Apartments, Villas, Commercial, Plots)
Apartments: 17,112 sales worth AED 31.8B (~59% of total value). Strong YoY gains in both volume and value, supported by continuous launch cycles and global demand for lock-and-leave stock.
Villas: ~955–2,061 sales reported across sources, with AED 5.2B value in one widely shared cut. The gist is consistent: villa volume fell YoY, but median values jumped—a supply story more than a demand one. (Personally, I think the villa narrative is under-counted by headline volume; the weight sits in fewer, larger deals.)
Commercial Properties: 514 sales worth ~AED 1.5B. Volume up ~46% YoY and value up ~100%, reflecting logistics/industrial demand and some chunky commercial transfers.
Plots: 1,545 sales worth ~AED 15.7B—a dramatic surge YoY that pairs neatly with long-cycle bets (and airport-adjacent narratives).
Mild contradiction worth flagging: depending on the dashboard or recap you read, villa count lines vary (as off-plan vs. resale parsing differs). The bigger picture—villa scarcity in prime cells and elevated medians—holds across sources.
Key Insights: Apartments dominate with 59% market share. Plots showed dramatic YoY surge. Commercial volume up 46%, value doubled.
Resale composition (to see where the end-user heat sits)
Property type | Transactions | YoY volume | Sales value |
|---|---|---|---|
Apartments | 3,766 | +0.6% | AED 6.9B |
Villas | 966 | +6.0% | AED 6.2B |
Commercial | 255 | –7.9% | AED 771.6M |
Plots | 207 | +42.8% | AED 3.7B |
Buildings | 1 | –50.0% | AED 12M |
These resale splits help explain why mortgages cooled: end-user activity is price-sensitive and rate-sensitive; investors paying cash in off-plan aren’t.
Prices & Rents (What’s actually happening with affordability?)
Where the action clustered (by volume & value)
The ranking is consistent across the best public recaps I’ve seen this week—unsurprising given the wave of mid-ticket apartments (JVC) and heavy-ticket commercial/plot deals (Business Bay + DIP Second).
Luxury, briefly (because yes, it still matters)
Headline apartment deals in September included:
A few structural drivers (quick takes)
Off-plan dominance: 74% by volume, ~68% by value. Payment plan optionality and branded launch cadence continue to overpower rate headwinds.
Mortgage slowdown: 3,787 deals totaling AED 12.1B—noticeably softer YoY, consistent with higher rates and tighter underwriting. Cash is king (again).
Affordability gravity: Nearly two-thirds of deals below AED 2M, especially in JVC and Al Barsha South Second—two communities that keep soaking up first-time investors.
Macro watch: Some analysts flagged the possibility of a mid-cycle cool-off into late-2025/2026 as supply ramps. Not a base case for an abrupt stop, but worth holding in your mental model.
Best-selling projects (color you can use)
Resources
Buying from abroad? Read our [Dubai Property Buying Process — Step by Step](https://totalityestates.com/blog/dubai-property-buying-process-step-by-step)
New investor? Start with [Dubai Property Fees & Charges Breakdown](https://totalityestates.com/blog/)
Comparing areas? Our community cheat-sheets help you align budget with yield (ping us if you want a JVC vs. Dubai South vs. Business Bay matrix).
Curious about Golden Visa options tied to property? Try our Golden Visa explainer on the blog.
Want curated off-plan launch picks? [Contact Totality Estates](https://totalityestates.com/) and ask for the “Durable Yield, Central-ish” list.
Neighborhood deep dive (quick but practical)
1) Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC) — the volume sponge
JVC remains the city’s shock absorber for demand under AED 2M. The formula isn’t mysterious: efficient floor plans, continuous off-plan pipeline, and rents that have crept up enough to keep gross yields attractive for entry-level investors. It’s not perfect—occasional construction pockets, and asset quality varies a lot building-to-building—but that’s precisely why careful selection pays. Think “best-in-cluster” rather than “anything with a launch banner.”
Image source: Arabianbusiness.com
What to target: one-bedroom layouts with livable 650–800 sq ft (or compact two-beds under ~1,050 sq ft), balconies, and covered parking, in buildings with a track record of timely handover and decent FM. If you can stretch, branded or semi-branded mid-tier helps with exit.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/bw8w6GG2AeGirDYw7
Watch-outs: aggressive service charges relative to achievable rent; micro-locations abutting long-tail construction; over-optimistic handover timelines on some launches.
2) Business Bay — value magnet (and not just for apartments)
When Business Bay tops the value chart, two things are usually happening: (1) premium apartments with Downtown adjacency are changing hands, and (2) select commercial floors/strata offices (and occasional bulk/plot moves) are resetting comps. That second piece is sometimes underplayed in consumer articles but it matters for capital flows.
What to target: if residential, favor direct or framed views (canal/skyline) and proven towers where rental demand is more resilient in shoulder months. If commercial, prioritize floor plates that work for SMEs (not just big boxes), good lift ratios, and realistic service charges.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/1h5hrULSXAjcq1qo7
Watch-outs: overpaying for marketing polish vs. real spec (sound-proofing, lobby traffic management, retail mix). Business Bay has both the excellent and the merely glossy.
3) Al Barsha South Second — mid-market momentum
This sub-district has quietly become a dependable node for buyers who want “Dubai addresses without Dubai Marina prices.” Schools, arterial road access, and continuous new supply at attainable tickets keep velocity high. It’s not chasing trophy pricing; it’s solving for livability and cash flow. I like that.
What to target: family-friendly two-beds with decent storage and understated finishes (tenants care more about function than marble here). If off-plan, interrogate the developer’s escrow/contracting trail—more mid-market launches means more selection… and more variance.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/zzEGTo6LiK8oPwxWA
Watch-outs: pockets with thinner retail/social infrastructure; mind the timeline for handovers to match your financing or rental start date.
4) Dubai Investment Park (Second) — value concentration via commercial/plots
DIP Second sneaks onto the “by value” podium when meaningful land or commercial components trade. It’s not a postcard location; it’s a spreadsheet location. If you’re a pure yield or development-minded buyer, that’s not a criticism—it’s a compliment.
Image source: Reportage Group
What to target: income-producing warehouses with stable tenancy, or plots with line-of-sight to infrastructure upgrades. If this sounds “too institutional,” it’s not; mid-ticket deals appear more often than you’d think, provided diligence is tight.
https://maps.app.goo.gl/36H6SXRFQcuCjRXv5
Watch-outs: lease covenants; latent capex; fit-out vs. base-build scope; traffic flows for last-mile.
Neighborhood snapshot table (September-style lens)
Area | Why it ranked | Typical buyer goal | Selection edge |
|---|---|---|---|
JVC | High volume via sub-AED 2M units, continuous launches | Entry yield & liquidity | Pick best-in-cluster towers; avoid high service-charge traps |
Business Bay | High value via premium apts + commercial/plots | Capital growth + liquidity | View corridors, proven towers, realistic OPEX |
Al Barsha South Second | Consistent mid-market absorption | Family-grade rentals & price discipline | Two-bed functional plans; developer track record |
DIP Second | Value via commercial/plots, industrial demand | Income, re-positioning, or development | Lease quality, capex discipline, logistics access |
(If you want a deeper, block-level map of “buy zones” we use internally, say the word—I’ll share a simplified version for your brief.)
ROI the honest way (with ranges, not fairy dust)
I don’t love blog posts that promise a single “Dubai yield.” It depends on asset, micro-location, service charges, and whether the finish augments rent more than it inflates capex. Below are illustrative ranges you can sanity-check against current listings and our rental books. Treat them as guardrails, not gospel.
Assumptions we’ll keep consistent (so you can tweak later)
Vacancy: 4 weeks / year (≈7.7%) for apartments; 3 weeks for villas in established districts
Agent letting fee: 5% of annual rent (landlord-paid, varies)
Service charges: AED 18–24/sq ft apartments (cluster-dependent), AED 3–5/sq ft villas (community-dependent)
Maintenance sink (non-service charge): AED 3–6/sq ft (older stock higher)
Transaction costs: ~4% DLD + ~2% agency + admin (varies by deal)
If you’re financing, overlay net interest burden and arrangement fees to convert from gross to levered ROE; for now we’ll compare unlevered yields apples-to-apples.
Illustrative yield scenarios (unlevered, year-1)
Micro-market & asset | Typical ticket | Achievable rent (year-1) | Service charge (est.) | Gross yield | Net yield (post SC + letting + vacancy, pre-tax) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JVC 1BR (new, 700–750 sq ft) | AED 0.95–1.15M | AED 65–78K | ~AED 13–18K | 5.9–7.7% | 4.7–6.2% |
Business Bay 1BR (view unit) | AED 1.6–2.2M | AED 95–125K | ~AED 22–30K | 5.4–6.7% | 4.1–5.3% |
Al Barsha South Second 2BR | AED 1.4–1.8M | AED 95–115K | ~AED 22–26K | 5.6–7.1% | 4.3–5.7% |
DIP income warehouse (mid-ticket) | AED 6–10M | Net lease 8–11% of price | N/A (NNN-style varies) | 8–11% | 7.5–10% |
Two immediate observations:
JVC can still print solid net yields if you buy the right building at the right service-charge profile.
Business Bay gives you more liquidity and exit velocity—but you’re paying for that privilege in the cap rate.
If you want, I can turn this into a live calculator (price, rent, SC, vacancy) and embed it on TotalityEstates.com. It’s a quick widget and helps leads self-qualify.
Payment plans (what’s “normal” vs. “marketing”)
Not all 60/40s are born equal. The distribution of payments and post-handover tails decide your real carrying cost—not the headline ratio.
Plan archetype | What it really means | Who it suits | Hidden gotchas |
|---|---|---|---|
60/40 construction-linked | 60% over build, 40% at handover | Mid-term holders wanting lower post-handover burden | If build pace is fast, cash calls come faster |
70/30 with 2-yr post-handover | 70% to handover, 30% across 24 months with key in hand | Rent-to-carry buyers | Check late-payment penalties; service charges start at handover |
10/90 “handover heavy” | Token booking, balloon at handover | Buyers timing liquidity event | Finance readiness at handover date; appraisal risk |
80/20 “front-loaded” | Most paid early; small tail | Price-sensitive buyers chasing launch discount | Opportunity cost—capital stuck before rental starts |
How to compare plans apples-to-apples: compute an effective IRR using (a) staged outflows, (b) expected rental start date, and (c) conservative rent. A plan that looks flexible may have a harsher penalty schedule or smaller net tail than the banner suggests.
Strategic plays for Q4 2025 (practical, not generic)
Barbell your book
Pair one cash-flowing resale (JVC or Al Barsha South Second two-bed) with one off-plan that has branding/amenities leverage (Business Bay, Dubai Harbour corridor, or airport-adjacent if you’re comfortable with timeline risk). The blend gives you carry today and optionality tomorrow.
Exploit mis-priced service charges
Some mid-market assets with efficient common-area ratios are still listed as if they carried “typical” SC. If our building-level audit shows lower true SC, your net yield beats comps without paying a premium. It’s unglamorous work; it’s also alpha.
Lean into 12–18-month handovers
Projects close enough to completion to be real, but far enough to keep the premium in check. If developers add short post-handover tails, even better—you can rent while finishing your payments.
Commercial lite
Not everyone wants to jump to warehouses, but a small office floor in the right Business Bay tower (sane SC, divisible plate) can diversify income. Tenants are stickier than many assume—if the elevators and parking work.
Sell a straggler, upgrade a core
If you hold an underperforming asset (high SC, weak tenant profile), September’s liquidity suggests you can exit without fire-sale pricing and rotate into a better micro-market. Portfolio hygiene beats hoping.
Quick “buy brief” checklist (copy/paste this into your notes)
Target micro-market (why this one, not the neighbor?)
Unit spec (size, orientation, floor, acoustic reality—not brochure promises)
Exit story (who buys from you and why)
Service charge reality (AED/sq ft and what it actually maintains)
Vacancy assumption (be honest; one month is conservative for apartments)
Rent comp set (3–5 true comparables, not only listings)
Developer/HOA discipline (minutes, escrow behavior, snagging history)
Transport + social infrastructure (present and pipeline)
Payment plan IRR (simple spreadsheet beats glossy banners)
Plan B (if rent underperforms by 10–15%, do you still like the asset?)
Comparison table: Off-plan vs. Resale (investor lens)
Criteria | Off-plan | Resale |
|---|---|---|
Entry price (per sq ft) | Often higher headline, lower immediate cash | Market-linked, negotiable with motivated sellers |
Cash calls | Staged; can be light early | Lump-sum (plus closing costs) |
Rent start | Later (handover) | Immediate |
Visibility of defects | Lower pre-handover (snag at delivery) | Higher (you can inspect now) |
Liquidity | Launch phases = fast booking, resale later may vary | Active secondary market day one |
Who it suits | Growth/branding/amenity-driven investors | Yield-first or financing-sensitive buyers |
ROI Table (v2) — more conservative, apples-to-apples
Below I shift assumptions to more conservative vacancy and a wider maintenance buffer, since many readers will benchmark with caution. Use it to show how net yield behaves when you tighten dials.
Assumptions (v2):
Vacancy: 6 weeks/year (≈11.5%) apartments, 5 weeks villas
Letting fee: 5% of annual rent
Service charges (SC): AED 20–25/sq ft apartments; AED 4–6/sq ft villas (community-dependent)
Maintenance (beyond SC): AED 4–7/sq ft (older stock higher)
DLD + agency + admin: assume ~6.5% round-trip (purchase side)
Micro-market & asset | Typical ticket | Achievable rent (Yr-1) | Service charge (est.) | Maint. buffer | Gross yield | Net yield (post SC + letting + vacancy, pre-tax) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JVC 1BR (700–750 sq ft) | AED 1.0–1.2M | AED 68–78K | 14–19K | 3–5K | 5.7–7.8% | 4.0–5.6% |
Business Bay 1BR (view) | AED 1.7–2.3M | AED 100–130K | 24–32K | 4–6K | 5.0–6.8% | 3.6–5.0% |
Al Barsha South Second 2BR | AED 1.45–1.9M | AED 98–118K | 22–27K | 4–6K | 5.2–6.8% | 3.9–5.3% |
DIP income warehouse (NNN-style) | AED 6–10M | 8–11% of price | N/A (tenant-borne) | N/A | 8–11% | 7.8–10.5% |
Takeaway: the story still holds—JVC and Al Barsha South Second carry the yield baton for entry tickets; Business Bay trades some yield for exit velocity and rental depth; DIP can stretch yields if you’re comfortable with commercial diligence.
Want this as a calculator widget? Say the word and I’ll spin a simple slider-based version (price, rent, SC, vacancy) you can embed on TotalityEstates.com.
Frequently Asked Questions (SEO-tuned, human answers)
Is the Dubai real estate market still rising as of September 2025?
Broadly yes—value growth (+21.2% YoY) outpaced volume growth (+11.3% YoY), supported by off-plan. That said, pockets move at different speeds; selection matters more than ever.
Off-plan vs resale: which is better right now?
Neither universally. Off-plan wins on branding, amenities, and flexible cash calls; resale wins on immediate rent and inspect-before-you-buy certainty. Blend both if you can.
Where are investors buying under AED 2M?
JVC and Al Barsha South Second absorb a lot of sub-AED-2M demand. Focus on best-in-cluster buildings and realistic service charges.
Are mortgage buyers stepping back?
Mortgage transactions and value dipped YoY. Rates and underwriting explain most of it; cash/off-plan investors kept the market busy.
What yields can I expect on apartments?
Broad ranges: net 4–6% for well-selected mid-market stock; a bit lower in prime/luxe if you’re paying for view/brand/exit liquidity.
Are villas still investable with lower volumes?
Yes—if you’re disciplined. The median villa price jumped YoY; volume softening is partly supply. For yield, smaller townhouses in strong family communities can still pencil.
How do I compare payment plans fairly?
Model effective IRR with staged cash flows, handover date, and conservative rent. A “nice” 70/30 can underperform a 60/40 if penalties or timelines bite.
What about commercial assets?
Selective Business Bay strata offices and DIP warehouses are compelling if lease covenants and OPEX are sane. Yields can outrun residential—but diligence is non-negotiable.
What are typical service charges?
Varies widely. Apartments: AED 18–25/sq ft is common; villas/townhouses: ~AED 3–6/sq ft. Always check what the fee actually maintains.
Can I qualify for a Golden Visa via property?
Yes, subject to thresholds and rules at time of application. Many investors ladder purchases to cross eligibility while keeping yields reasonable.
Is now a good time to rotate assets?
If you hold a high-SC underperformer, liquidity is still strong. Swapping into better micro-markets or lower-OPEX buildings can lift net returns without adding risk.
How do I avoid overpaying?
Triangulate three data points: recent transfer comps, rental comps (not just listings), and building-level OPEX. When in doubt, be patient—Dubai always has another launch.
If you want a short list of buy-ready units (clean service charges, rent-ready spec, and real comps), tell us your budget range and preferred handover timeline. We'll reply with 4–6 candidates and a 1-page yield sheet for each—no fluff.
